Victorian hay update 31 July 2008
31 Jul 2008
By Australian Fodder Industry Association
 Victorian Hay Update
Overview The 2008 hay crops continue to look good across most parts of Victoria. However, lurking below many of these crops is a lack of subsoil moisture that could limit hay production should we get an early or hot, dry spring. Rain over the last week has been limited to around 10-15mm across most of the hay-growing regions, although there have been pockets that received more. The falls of the last week follow good rains around 21 July when some areas, mainly through the north east of the state, received falls of over 10mm. This rain has been welcomed as it enough to keep crops in good condition for this time of year. Many producers are pleased to get this rain, but following their experiences last season their gaze is firmly fixed on forecasts for August and September where more rain and cooler temperatures are needed to ensure a good crop. The Bureau of Meteorology is suggesting a 40 to 50 per cent chance of exceeding the August to October median rainfall for most of Victoria. The market A combination of improved pasture conditions, a lower number of cows milking and good volumes of hay stored on dairy farms have seen hay buying activity in the northern Victorian diary market slow in recent weeks. This reduced activity has not necessarily seen a softening in pricing as cereal hay is receiving in the order of $260-280 per tonne, with some high quality parcels selling for up to and over $300 per tonne. As pasture conditions have improved in some areas, the demand for higher quality hay is lower, as those with good pastures are keen to get the rumen scratch effect from hay, rather the higher feed values of the better quality hay. Buyers are now travelling further to buy hay for this northern area as local hay stocks are lower following good buying activity earlier in winter. Many are buying from the Horsham area or the Riverina and are willing to pay the increasing freight prices as they believe they can land this hay cheaper than buying local hay. Dairy demand for hay in the north is expected to increase as more cows are milked through spring, but the impact of this on the market is difficult to forecast as it will rely on pasture conditions of the time, the amount of hay stored on dairy farms and the expected new-crop hay availability. There is a lot resting on this spring. The Gippsland hay market has seen a steady increase in purchases of hay as on-farm stocks reduce, pasture growth slows through the cooler months and pasture conditions in some areas, particularly the east, are less than ideal. On the flip side irrigation supplies in reservoirs are said to be building nicely for the irrigation season ahead. Gippsland buyers are paying similar prices for cereal hay as their northern counterparts, around $260-280 delivered, but higher for better quality or greater distances travelled. Much of this hay coming from the Pyrenees and Horsham areas and about 70 per cent of hay moving into Gippsland is said to be cereal hay. Conditions in the Western Districts remain the envy of other parts of Victoria. Coming of an excellent pasture hay season in 2007, the area has experienced an earlier and better quality break than most other areas. This has provided good pasture growth and full dams. The hay market for this area has been steady since harvest and pasture hay is selling for between $160-190 ex farm for good quality hay - a lot of the lower quality hay has been sold earlier in the season. While Western Districts has produced good volumes and quality of pasture hay, there has been a swing by dairy farmers toward using cereal hay in their ration. Cereal hay provids quality in a narrower range given the diary farmer increased confidence in the product they are buying. This change could see a shift toward producing more cereal hay in the area over time.
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